Today is Northern Territories Day in Japan and, speaking at a rally, Prime Minister Abe promised to resolve the dispute with Russia as soon as possible, before the current generation passes away that was expelled from the islands in an ethnic cleansing campaign by Russia following the seizure of the islands by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. For details on the Northern Territories dispute, review
this past article. Abe said that he would do this based on the personal relationship he has established with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The dispute is the primary reason why there has never been a treaty between Russia and Japan ending the Second World War. Abe expressed "strong hope" that the matter could be resolved but there seems to be few facts to support any such optimism. Russia has also spoken favorably of ending the dispute but only in a way that favors Russia, in other words, Russia favors Japan desisting from claiming islands that Moscow considers Russian territory. Indeed, only hours after Prime Minister Abe made his remarks, there was a response from the Russian government, reaffirming their position that the islands belong to Russia and that Japan has no grounds for contesting this.
What makes this all the more frustrating is that the Abe government has been publicly disrespected on this issue in the past. For several years now the Russians have said that if Japan wants to resolve this dispute, it should "adjust its policy" toward Russia. Well, Abe did just that such as in the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. While voicing support for the United States and European Union that objected to the Russian expansion, Japan did not really take part in the sanctions against Russia because Abe hoped that this would win Putin's goodwill and bring about the return of the Northern Territories. Russia responded with a diplomatic 'slap in the face' to Japan by Putin sending one of his closest aids to the disputed islands as a way of showing the Russian flag there. Abe then responded by belatedly joining in the sanctions and Russia publicly insulted Japan, saying that the Japanese were not capable of handling their own foreign affairs. Nothing of substance has changed since that time, so it does not seem that President Putin is prepared to be reasonable about the Northern Territories issue.
Relations between Russia and China have also only grown stronger in recent years as China dominates the purchasing and much of the operation of the Russian energy industry in the Russian Far East. If Russia made even the slightest move toward coming to an agreement with Japan over the Northern Territories, China would surely object. That Russia would not risk offending China should be clear. There were Sino-Russian territorial disputes as well and Putin ended those by giving up territory claimed by China. He has never shown any indication of giving up territory that is Japanese. The problem is that Japan has no bargaining leverage over Russia. Japan must strengthen itself in all sectors so that Russia cannot comfortably continue to ignore the Japanese position.
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