Despite the ongoing efforts of the Abe administration to improve relations between the governments in Moscow and Tokyo, Russia has sent a very clear and very unfriendly message to Japan concerning the Northern Territories. Despite repeated Japanese requests to the contrary, Russian Prime Minister and former President Dmitry Medvedev visited the disputed Japanese territory, occupied by Russia illegally in the last days of World War II. Because of this, a planned visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, to Russia will probably be delayed or canceled and a protest was given to the Russian ambassador in Tokyo. Prime Minister Abe expressed criticism of Russia’s action but, as usual, still said he holds out hope for talks with Russia and resolving the territorial dispute. This, of course, is not the first time this has happened even during the current phase of the dialogue between Japan and Russia (see past posts on the subject
here and
here) and the continuation of this cycle has, so far, been detrimental to Japan. Russia has conceded nothing and has continued to send officials to visit the islands against the wishes of Japan even though refraining from doing so would cost Russia nothing.
It should be perfectly clear to all by now that Russia has no intention of returning the occupied territory to Japan or even having a serious discussion about the issue. Not long ago Prime Minister Medvedev announced that Russia would be investing 70 billion rubles in the region (which amounts to about $1.4 billion) as part of what he claimed was an effort to improve living conditions for the Russians who have taken up residence on the islands since World War II. There are about 20,000 Russians now living on the island chain and so such a sum would amount to an astounding $70,000 per person in order to, as Medvedev claimed, “improve living conditions”. Obviously, such a large amount of money would not be spent on the territory by Russia if they had any intention of returning the islands to Japan. Russia has also built up naval facilities there and has reportedly moved two new Borei-class nuclear missile submarines to the Vilyuchinsk submarine base in Kamchatka, armed with multiple nuclear warhead ballistic missiles, to threaten the United States. The Russian military has said that their control over the entire Kurile island chain is vital to protecting these offensive weapons in the Okhotsk Sea.
This action also suggests that President Vladimir Putin may not have been at all sincere in his previous offer to return the less strategically significant islands of Shikotan and Habomai to Japan, an offer which the Japanese government rejected as it would mean endorsing the illegal occupation of the remainder of the islands which have always been considered an integral part of Japan. While this Russian military buildup has been going on, Russia has also been very critical of Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to allow for collective self-defense and increased national security for Japan. This is, of course, totally in concert with the wishes of China which does not want to see Japan strengthened and which continues to try to isolate Japan on the world stage. The way the Abe regime has persisted in pushing for dialogue in spite of repeated and very public insults by the Russian government has made Japan appear weak. However, the Russians themselves have been failing in their overall strategic plan for East Asia and are increasingly becoming subordinate to the Chinese.
Putin adviser Sergei Glazyev stated not very long ago, in a policy manifesto, that Russia must ally with the growing power of China but avoid becoming a Chinese vassal by also strengthening ties with other Asian powers such as India, Korea, Japan, Iran and Vietnam. However, the Chinese policy of expansion has thwarted any Russian effort to broaden its base of support in Asia beyond China. India has been alarmed by the presence of Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean, Vietnam has been confronted by China at sea and even though Vietnam is the most recent American enemy in the region, Chinese aggression has caused a softening in Vietnam toward the United States so that U.S. naval vessels are now stopping at Vietnamese ports. As Chinese aggression continues, Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam and others are all becoming more concerned about security and have looked to strengthen cooperation on defense matters with the U.S. and Australia. Russia is tied to China, everyone can see that, and it doesn’t help that this policy of greater defense cooperation is exactly why Prime Minister Abe is pushing to allow for collective self-defense by Japan, a move which Russia opposes and it is clear that this is in lock-step with the Chinese. All of this shows how Russia is becoming more and more beholden to China alone and recent events have shown that China is not quite the economic powerhouse everyone believed it was.
It should be clear that Japan will gain nothing by further dialogue with Russia over the Northern Territories. However, as China has returned to more classically communist policies under the current dictator, their economy has started a downturn. If Japan continues to strengthen itself and sticks to common sense policies, it can survive the coming storm while Russia may prove to be tied to disastrously inept government in China. Eventually, if things continue as they are, Japan will be in a much stronger position and Russia may be obliged to finally address the issue of the Northern Territories with sincerity and a more respectful attitude toward Japan.
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